{"id":190,"date":"2016-12-14T15:28:10","date_gmt":"2016-12-14T14:28:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tmwb.nl\/huib\/?p=190"},"modified":"2018-03-28T19:20:54","modified_gmt":"2018-03-28T17:20:54","slug":"waarom-lyme-statistieken-nooit-kloppen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/huib.me\/en\/blog\/waarom-lyme-statistieken-nooit-kloppen\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Lyme statistics are always off"},"content":{"rendered":"

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How to interpret Lyme statistics? Numbers tend to give a sense of certainty. A month ago the national Dutch TV program \u201cCare.now<\/a>\u201d opened with this sentence: \u201cLyme Disease is an epidemic in the Netherlands, because 25,000 people suffer from it.<\/em>\u201d Many patients were happy with this public recognition. As a researcher and author I wondered: how useful are statistics in Lyme Lands?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Official statistics about Lyme are, in any country, based on the infected part of the national tick population and on the number of reported cases of Lyme. These numbers are based on positive test results on two standard tests (Elisa and Western Blot).<\/div>\n
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Most doctors have learned that Lyme infection will only occur 48 hours after the bite and that a clear red ring needs to show up. According to this reasoning, one can only be infected with Lyme if:<\/p>\n

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  1. there has been a tick bite<\/li>\n
  2. the tick was not removed within 48 hours<\/li>\n
  3. there is a red ring<\/li>\n
  4. the tests show the infection<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    As a formula, one could denote the possible number of Lyme infections per country as x = (a*b) – c {if: d & e}<\/em><\/p>\n